Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.298507 2.441264 2.592432 2.765133 2.957858 3.167350 3.413705
2025-05-11 2.075593 2.268609 2.483278 2.742161 3.049266 3.406394 3.859947
2025-05-18 1.933303 2.153654 2.406978 2.724257 3.117751 3.599440 4.250128
2025-05-25 1.822899 2.060018 2.339608 2.700327 3.164057 3.756629 4.601437
2025-06-01 1.732845 1.981123 2.279987 2.675238 3.199203 3.894547 4.935996
2025-06-08 1.669213 1.928564 2.246717 2.677283 3.264980 4.074266 5.348534
2025-06-15 1.625219 1.896554 2.235474 2.704529 3.363590 4.305993 5.870543
2025-06-22 1.558777 1.831831 2.177293 2.663157 3.360475 4.386147 6.160316
2025-06-29 1.497574 1.770551 2.119753 2.617830 3.346242 4.445332 6.420466
2025-07-06 1.436683 1.706841 2.055546 2.558664 3.305991 4.458104 6.597926
2025-07-13 1.414831 1.693171 2.057313 2.591979 3.405478 4.702735 7.244651
2025-07-20 1.398270 1.685438 2.066197 2.635196 3.522504 4.988588 8.034396
2025-07-27 1.380306 1.675509 2.072105 2.675242 3.639507 5.292557 8.951724
2025-08-03 1.343825 1.638897 2.038831 2.654321 3.655364 5.416592 9.500650
2025-08-10 1.311126 1.606191 2.009514 2.637391 3.675859 5.550776 10.111551
2025-08-17 1.278834 1.572859 1.977797 2.614714 3.684287 5.661977 10.697427
2025-08-24 1.248203 1.540795 1.946566 2.590931 3.688579 5.764910 11.294732
2025-08-31 1.226784 1.520916 1.932206 2.592869 3.737938 5.965669 12.250182
2025-09-07 1.213244 1.511642 1.932899 2.618697 3.831929 6.273790 13.683025
2025-09-14 1.182765 1.477258 1.894957 2.579475 3.802898 6.308149 14.208427
2025-09-21 1.152743 1.442764 1.855775 2.536480 3.763926 6.315753 14.646919
2025-09-28 1.120577 1.404440 1.809759 2.480320 3.696662 6.251346 14.793355
2025-10-05 1.112651 1.400907 1.816164 2.511948 3.799603 6.600598 16.799829